The irreplaceable Joe Biden
Why neither the Democratic Party nor the Biden campaign can let President Joe Biden retire.
The Thursday debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump highlighted the mental inadequacy of President Biden – he appeared old, confused, and unable to form his thoughts. The media, including the pro-Democrat media, spun into action, calling on him to step down. There are several reasons why neither Biden nor the Democratic National Committee – the management apparatus that runs the Democratic Party and organised the convention to select the president and vice president – cannot have Biden step down.
Family business
With the Department of Justice coming after Donald Trump, it is to be expected that Trump will retaliate in kind – or so the Biden family fears – including by prosecuting Hunter Biden and Jim Biden, Joe’s son and brother, for their dealings with foreign government-connected entities. The family will therefore want to keep Joe Biden in the top job. First Lady Jill Biden appears to be playing a key role there.
Fear of Humiliation
Everyone from President Obama to Hillary Clinton to senior Democratic politicians has come out in recent years and months to defend President Biden’s mental acuity. To concede now that he is in fact unfit for office would be to admit to lying to the American people for the past four years. Moreover, if Biden is unfit to be the candidate in November, he is unfit for the job today, as Daniel Berman has argued.
Kamala Harris
Few people in Washington have managed to cultivate as bad a reputation as Vice President Kamala Harris has. She has had more than a dozen top level resignations from her staff. She is inarticulate, incompetent and unpopular. She is, however, Joe Biden’s natural successor. This forces the question – did Biden place her there because of his belief in intersectional feminism, or as an insurance policy, knowing full well that the threat of her taking the reins safeguards his interests?
Succession
Given that Kamala is a non-starter as a presidential candidate, who exactly is meant to replace Biden if he steps down? And how does the wokest administration in history explain passing over a black woman for the job? How are party grandees meant to decide which faction gets the nomination, absent the possibility of a new primary process? Would the nomination go to an Obama loyalist, a Biden loyalist, a Pelosi loyalist or to a new face? What stops the Democratic Party from engaging in a bout of infighting that tarnishes any potential candidate if Biden is removed?
Aides’ interests
Having a weak president suits the bureaucracy and the president’s seniormost aides, as it gives them unprecedented power. They can implement their own policies, fight their rivals, gain more leverage, and accumulate wealth. Biden’s key aides likely want their patron to remain in office, as that is the best means of maximising their own power.
Control of the DNC
The DNC itself is controlled by Joe Biden’s loyalists, including the Rules and Bylaws Committee, which would be tasked with rewriting the rules to allow itself to replace President Biden. That committee has already done Biden the favour of moving the primary schedule around to help him get a win. It would likely not disobey him now. Critically, the DNC does not have a process in place to remove a candidate who does not want to step down. Attempting to forge one while Biden and his aides still want him to run would result in a highly embarrassing public spectacle that discredits Biden’s successor as nominee.
Commercial Impact
The Democrats have only two realistic alternatives – to rally behind Joe Biden, however unenthusiastically, or to engage in a public and humiliating fight between the different factions, without any assurance that doing so would result in Biden being replaced. As such, it is far less risky for the party to rally behind Biden than to fight him. If Biden wanted to step down, however, he would want to do so on his own terms and while designating his own successor - obviously not Kamala - and doing so would be tantamount to Biden admitting to be incapable of holding the presidency. It is therefore unlikely.
The complicating factor for Biden is that his economic record, unpopularity and poor debate performance require him to campaign much harder than he did in 2020 – when, famously, he mostly stayed at home in Delaware. Doing so, however, may strain his health to an extent that makes him incapable of running or governing. If he suffers some kind of health crisis due to the additional strain in September or October, the Democrats would be stuck with Vice President Harris as their candidate. Trump would relish running against her.
All in all, Biden’s performance favours Trump’s candidacy. A victory for Trump would ensure widespread violence and unrest by Democrats and antifa, as well as endless litigation to stop Trump’s agenda, and political pressure on him to stay committed to confronting Russia, China and Iran simultaneously.