Attack on Iranian consulate in Damascus
Iran will respond in Jordan and against Israeli ports, while trying to remain below the threshold of war.
Incident: Israel attacked Iran’s consulate in Damascus on 1 April, killing several IRGC commanders.
Commercial Summary: Iran most likely will retaliate by pressuring Jordan, and perhaps striking cargo in Saudi Arabia, the UAE or Jordan that it can claim is going to Israel overland. It will also increase its attacks via Iraqi proxies targeting Israeli ports. Furthermore, Iraqi pro-Iran groups will likely resume their attacks on US bases. Throughout, Iran will want to remain below the threshold of initiating hostilities with the US.
Several Iranian commanders perished in an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, including the overall commander in Syria and Lebanon, General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, as well as General Mohammad Hadi Hajirahimi and five other military advisors. Zahedi was extremely senior, almost as significant as Soleimani in the regional theatre, with a history from the Iran - Iraq War. His involvement with Hezbollah dates at least from the 1990s.
Needless to say, this is very unusual of behaviour and in most conditions would constitute a casus belli. There is no modern precedent for a deliberate strike on an embassy in a third country - the US apologised profusely and offered compensation for the strike against the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999. However, in the Middle East, war has no rules, and the value systems are entirely different. For example, pro-Hezbollah media all but admitted that Hamas did have commanders in the Shif’a hospital, while claiming that Israel’s attack on said hospital was a genocidal war crime.
Israel’s logic
There are two possible interpretations for what Israel is doing. The first is that Israel is trying to draw Iran into an escalation that sucks in the US and that may legitimise extreme actions against Iran. For 20 years Israel has been losing strategically to Iran, during which time Iran gained much of Yemen and most of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Israel is being surrounded and the next war will be disastrous for it, especially if it happens at a time when the US is disengaged or distracted by domestic concerns. Therefore, Israel needs to get the US to hit Iran, or to escalate the conflict enough to justify and receive Western backing for very extreme options against Iran, up to and including using weapons of mass destruction. Israel’s leadership is obsessed with the idea that the Zionist experiment will not survive.
The second explanation is more pedantic - Israel sees no rules of war that apply to it, but, rather, it does what it wants when it wants. The only logic it uses is force, because it believes its enemies only understand force. Therefore, if Israel can strike a diplomatic building and not suffer the consequences, it will. If it can kill senior Iranian commanders intent on destroying Israel, it will, regardless of the rules of war and diplomacy. In this view, Israel is not operating on a strategic logic, but is merely striking whatever gets in its way whenever it can.
Iran’s logic
Iran does not want a war with the US. It believes that it can defeat Israel, eventually, without one. Having Hamas severely weakened is acceptable. What matters to Iran is that there continue to be a Palestinian population that resists - that is Hamas and the Islamic Jihad are, from Iran’s perspective.
That said, Iran wants to impose a ceasefire sooner rather than later, on principle and to preserve as much of Hamas as it can. It will retaliate to Israel’s strike, while fully aware that Israel is under US protection, and that Iran has a lot to lose in Syria, Iraq and especially in Lebanon. So, its response will involve repeated and specific targeting intended to remain below the threshold of war.
Iran’s response
Hezbollah will form an important part of the retaliation, given the longstanding relationship between Nasrallah and Zahedi. As such, an in increase in attacks on in-depth Israeli bases is almost certain, with the targeting likely moving to the Sea of Galilee and Safed clusters of bases.
To complement the naval blockade initiated by the Ansar Allah (Houthi) Movement in Yemen, Iran will work on cutting off Israeli supply chains to paralyse the Israeli economy and warfighting machine.
We expect more Iranian-sponsored attacks on Haifa, Ashkelon and Ashdod ports; more attacks from Hezbollah on Israeli border, second line and in depth northern positions; attacks on the Golan; and some more attempts to destabilise Jordan.
Already, Jordan had been saying that there were attacks involving several hundred fighters from Syria against border positions - Jordan attributed this to drug smugglers, but authorised journalists spoke openly of the involvement of Iraqi militias.
Jordan is the weak link here. It will be the main target. To stop the US from escalating back in line with Israel’s wishes, Iran will resume attacks on US bases most likely without intending to cause large scale casualties, and will also focus on Jordanian troops, rather than US troops, to embarrass the King and highlight to Jordan that it is an expendable ally - the US will fight for Israel, not Jordan.
It's in this context that we understand the statement of Kataib Hezbollah, that it is ready to arm 12,000 fighters in Jordan to fight against Israel. Kataib Hezbollah cannot and will not do this, but it does want to destabilise Jordan and to pressure it into switching sides, and permitting more weapons to flow into the West Bank as a means of relieving Hamas, strengthening Iran and weakening Israel further.
That said, it's a matter of time before attacks on US bases in Iraq resume. The Iraqi PM is heading to Washington in mid-April. The Iraqi Islamic Resistance factions will conduct attacks to remind him that he has no flexibility, and that he is to seek a full and fast withdrawal.
We would not be surprised if Iran struck a vehicle or vehicles in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and/or Jordan that were suspected of carrying goods en route to Israel. The Iranians do not want to break the China-sponsored Saudi - Iran reconciliation agreement. But they do want to help Hamas and bring about a ceasefire.
For their part, Ansar Allah will continue with their attacks on shipping, with the aim likely to include sinking a US naval vessel.